The statistics annex
Pack odds, without the vibes
Every pack is random and independent. This tool translates a pull rate into the honest probability across a whole box — the number the pack gods would quote you if they returned calls.
Chance of at least one hit
30.4%
1 − (1 − 0.0100)^36 · assumes independent packs
For a coin-flip (50%) chance you would need about 69 packs.
For a 90% chance, about 230 packs — and still no guarantee.
Plain language: if the estimated chance is 1 in 100 packs, opening 100 packs does not guarantee the card. The estimated chance of at least one hit is about 63%, assuming independent odds. This is why “just one more pack” is a feeling, not a strategy.
Estimates only. Every pack is random. If you need one specific card, buying the single is usually more predictable.
Where the numbers come from
- TCG Prayer demo dataset. Placeholder pull-rate numbers used to demonstrate the tools. Clearly labeled as demo data and not verified against real openings.
- Printed pack-insert odds. Some publishers print approximate rarity odds on packaging or product pages. When adopted, each row cites the specific product and date checked.
- Community opening surveys. Large community-run opening tallies. When adopted, we record the source URL, sample size, and review date, and grade confidence accordingly.
- Market price snapshots. Card market values used in EV estimates change daily. Values shown are snapshots, not live quotes, and are labeled with their review date.
Spotted a wrong number? Report it on the corrections page.
Frequently asked
If a card is 1 in 100 packs, do 100 packs guarantee it?
No. If the estimated chance is 1 in 100 packs, opening 100 packs does not guarantee the card. The estimated chance of at least one hit is about 63%, assuming independent odds.
Why do my last packs feel 'due'?
That's the gambler's fallacy. Each pack is independent — previous whiffs don't make the next pack more likely to hit. The pack does not know what you've been through.
Where do pull-rate estimates come from?
Printed pack-insert odds where publishers provide them, and community opening tallies elsewhere. All our datasets show their source, sample size and confidence grade — and demo data is labeled as demo.