The statistics annex
EV Calculator
Pick a product, optionally enter the price you'd actually pay, and see the estimated expected value with the math shown. The pack gods offer no opinion; the arithmetic offers plenty.
EV estimates are based on sampled or demo data and snapshot prices. They are informational estimates, not promises, price advice, or investment advice.
DEMO DATA — placeholder numbers for illustrating the tool, not verified pull rates.
Estimated EV
$1.92
Price vs EV
43%
of $4.49 back on average
Any hit chance
17%
per pack: 17%
| Hit | Est. rate | Avg value | EV share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 12 | $6.00 | $0.50 |
| Ultra Rare (ex) | ≈ 1 in 15 | $5.00 | $0.33 |
| Special Illustration Rare | ≈ 1 in 90 | $45.00 | $0.50 |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | ≈ 1 in 51 | $12.00 | $0.24 |
| Bulk & commons | every pack | $0.35 | $0.35 |
source: TCG Prayer demo dataset (placeholder — not verified) · sample: 1800 packs · confidence: low · reviewed: 2026-07-01. EV is an average across many packs — a single pack can and often will return far less. Estimates, not promises. Not investment advice.
Some links below are affiliate links — TCG Prayer may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Chasing one card? Run the singles-vs-packs math first.
Where the numbers come from
- TCG Prayer demo dataset. Placeholder pull-rate numbers used to demonstrate the tools. Clearly labeled as demo data and not verified against real openings.
- Printed pack-insert odds. Some publishers print approximate rarity odds on packaging or product pages. When adopted, each row cites the specific product and date checked.
- Community opening surveys. Large community-run opening tallies. When adopted, we record the source URL, sample size, and review date, and grade confidence accordingly.
- Market price snapshots. Card market values used in EV estimates change daily. Values shown are snapshots, not live quotes, and are labeled with their review date.
Spotted a wrong number? Report it on the corrections page.
Frequently asked
What does EV mean for a booster pack?
Expected value is the average market value of a pack's contents across many packs: each hit's rate times its value, plus bulk. A single pack usually returns less than its EV — the average is pulled up by rare big hits.
Why is the EV lower than the pack price?
Usually because sellers price in the fun of ripping and the chance at a top hit. That gap is the entertainment cost. If you want value, singles are typically the better buy.
How accurate are these numbers?
They are estimates from labeled datasets with sample sizes and confidence grades shown. Demo-labeled data is placeholder only. Market prices move daily; treat everything as directional.